The Information Society of 2020

“The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy” was first published in 1979. This is 25 years ago. The major alien character Ford Prefect from one of the planets of Betelgeuse had been stranded on Earth for 15 years. In his “survival kit” he kept many futuristic gadgets. One of them was a flat gadget with a 4x8 cm screen, which could carry one million book pages of information! Such was the science fiction gadget of 25 years ago. Today we can buy a comparable PDA/PC for less than a thousand euros.

How fast information technology develops! Performance/price ratios for central ICT components have doubled every 18 months for many years. This seems to continue for the foreseeable future. That means that the performance/price ratio increases 100-fold over 10 years, and 1000-fold over 15 years. Current processing capacities of the largest computers are comparable to 1-2% of the processing capacity of the human brain. In 2012-15 we should expect that the processing capacity of a large computer is comparable to that of the human brain, and in 2020 this capacity will probably be available on desktop computers. An even faster cost decrease can be expected for information storage.

This does not mean that computers will become human-like, and even compete with humans. Computers will (probably) not fall in love in ways comparable to how humans fall in love. They will (probably) not reproduce all on their own. They will (probably) not be able to develop radical new solutions to ill-defined problems by exercising fantasy and creative thinking. But they will develop into even more useful tools for satisfying human desires than what they constitute today.

The ongoing radical changes in cost/performance bring possibility for new applications of ICT. To be in the forefront of discovering what the new possibilities are we need to encourage our ability to exercise fantasy in an informed and creative manner. We need to give the young generations relevant knowledge, to make it possible for them to see opportunities when Lady Luck crosses their path, to see possibilities for doing old things in a new manner and also to do completely new things.

This is what the INFOSAM2020 exercise is about.    

The Faculty of Information Technology, Mathematics and Electrical Engineering (IME) at The Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) has an annual educational output of approximately 500 master students and 30 PhDs. The rapid pace of technological change impacts strongly on curricula and research. Technological change is also a key driver for changing the way we live, due to the deep penetration of computers in all realms of society. This impact on student recruitment, as well as on the relevance of research themes. The quality of our teaching depends on the quality and relevance of our research. In order to keep relevant we have to relate to future needs.

To this end the project InfoSam2020 has been established. The overall objective is to determine which knowledge profile our students should have in 2020, and the associated teaching and research. So we have to chart a course for the Faculty for the next 15-20 years. This may seem a long time, but it is not when we compare it to the 10 years it takes to set up high quality research in a new field.

The first step in the process is to explore the space of future possibilities, to describe possible technological changes and subsequent changes in our society. The next step comprises the charting of our course. The initial InfoSam2020 activity is a two-day seminar for exploring relevant features of the future information society, from now on until 2020.

InfoSam2020 is arranged in cooperation with The Norwegian Board of Technology, an independent body for technology assessment and foresight established by the Norwegian Government in 1999. The Board aims to assess impacts and options of technology in all areas of society; to stimulate public debate on technology; and to support the political decision-making process and shaping of technological change. Insights from InfoSam2020 will be thus be presented by the Board to relevant political authorities.

To serve as a framework two major themes have been selected. The first theme is devoted to the use of “intelligent” artifacts in various realms of human endeavor. The second theme is devoted to enabling technologies, in particular within the fields of mathematics, ICT and electrical engineering. The themes are outlined in the sequel.

Working groups have been established to prepare position papers on a limited number of subthemes within the very wide framework. The position papers are published in this report, and are also available on http://www.ime.ntnu.no/infosam2020

Theme 1: The Application View, Artifacts in the human environment

The material world

Keywords: Artifacts, devices, sound and sight in/out (man-machine interaction), energy, heating, lighting, energy sources and distribution, new materials, transport, travel, vehicles, roads, housing, smart houses, buildings, cities, clothing

The biological world

Keywords: Demography, life support, sustaining health/healthiness, medical diagnosis and treatment, old age, food, food safety, nutrition, cosmetics, exercise/fitness

The creative human

Keywords: Communication, entertainment, education/training edutainment/infotainment, art, games, man at work, man at leisure, mobility, fashion, lifestyle, experiences, meaningfulness, personalized services to relieve/simplify/sort/save time

The organization of human affairs

Keywords: Organizations, companies, government, social (support) systems, schools, universities, hospitals, banking, commerce, sustainable systems, service provisioning, CRM, politics, democracy, voting, organization of leisure, safety and security, law and order, sustainability, reliability, vulnerability, environmental issues

Theme 2: The Discipline View, Enabling Technologies

Information systems

Keywords: Cooperation technologies / CSCW, information management / digital libraries, human-computer interfaces, software engineering / information systems engineering, conceptual modeling, workflow management, semantic web, databases, datamining / information retrieval, artificial intelligence, system operation, competence management

Computer systems

Keywords: computer architectures, supercomputers, micro- and nanocomputers, quantum computation, computer graphics and visualization, database management systems, programming languages, program correctness management, system security protection

Communication technology

Keywords: wireless/wired communication, mobility, broadcasting technology, multimedia communications, convergence fixed/mobile / broadcast/unicast, unified infrastructures / IP technology, ad hoc networks, personal and local area networks, ambient computing, ultra high speed networks, optical switching, user interfaces, quality of service

Electronics

Keywords: Ambient intelligence, system-on-chip, embedded systems, “smart dust”, wireless systems and components, signal processing, VLSI, nanotechnology, optics/photonics, quantum communication, spintronics, mechatronics, functional materials, navigation, remote sensing, sensor/transducer technology, audio/video technology

Life support/medical technology

Keywords: Bionics, gene technology, medical equipment/systems

Mathematics

Keywords: Cryptography, coding theory, computation science / numerics, signal processing/wavelets, statistics

Electrical Energy

Keywords: Sustainable electricity production, power electronics, energy (systems) optimization, intelligent energy distribution, electricity storage systems, battery technology

Arne Sølvberg

(ed.)